Data Journalism

ASAMI: Age-structure-adjusted Covid Mortality by Country

By Sandro Tarkhan-Mouravi
Published: 19 Jun 2021 • Updated: 04 Nov 2022
 
 
Published: 19 Jun 2021 • Updated: 04 Nov 2022

Most coronavirus mortality tables don't take the vast differences in age structures across countries into account. Yet it's been widely known that mortality rates differ drastically across the age groups. Therefore a given mortality rate can have different implications, depending on the age structure of a country. Given equal death rates, a country with a younger population may have had a far greater spread of the virus or a lower efficiency of the counter-measures, than an older one.

At the same time, covid mortality rates have been widely perceived as indicators of countries' anti-covid policy efficiency. In reality there are numerous other factors, ranging from genetics to how internationally connected a country is. It's therefore impossible to assess policies through a single mortality indicator.

However, age structures are available for all the countries and are easy to account for. The age-structure-adjusted mortality indicator (ASAMI) I came up with essentially recalibrates each country's covid mortality so that we get an idea of how big its mortality might have been, had its age structure been the same as the USA's. For instance, Paraguay's deaths per million rank is 28th in the world, but taking the relative youth of its population into account, that number corresponds to the 4th place.

From the policy perspective, even assuming we could find the precise effects of various policies, death rate isn't the only parameter to consider. Let's say, slightly reducing covid mortality at the expense of sharply reducing personal freedom and wealth isn't justified per se. The ASAMI however does provide a better idea of how the outcomes in terms of covid deaths compare accross countries, even though insufficient to judge the policies.

Rank Country Covid-ASAMI Covid Deaths/Mil. Deaths/Mil. Rank Rank Diff.
1 Peru 50.4 5,648 1 0
2 Brazil 18.3 2,272 9 -7
3 Mexico 17.3 1,766 19 -16
4 Paraguay 16.6 1,481 28 -24
5 North Macedonia 15.8 2,626 5 0
6 Colombia 15.8 1,856 17 -11
7 Jordan 14.7 933 51 -44
8 Bosnia and Herzegovina 14.3 2,904 3 5
9 Montenegro 14.2 2,544 7 2
10 Hungary 14.2 3,103 2 8
11 Argentina 13.7 1,865 16 -5
12 Bolivia 13.4 1,308 33 -21
13 Panama 13.0 1,469 29 -16
14 Czechia 13.0 2,818 4 10
15 Palestine 12.9 674 61 -46
16 South Africa 12.5 961 48 -32
17 Slovakia 12.1 2,277 8 9
18 Bahrain 11.9 689 59 -41
19 Ecuador 11.7 1,174 40 -21
20 Bulgaria 11.1 2,595 6 14
21 Lebanon 11.1 1,151 41 -20
22 Belize 10.6 802 55 -33
23 Iran 10.6 965 47 -24
24 Chile 10.5 1,591 25 -1
25 Moldova 10.4 1,528 26 -1
26 Eswatini 10.1 576 66 -40
27 Armenia 10.0 1,510 27 0
28 Mayotte 9.9 618 64 -36
29 Tunisia 9.8 1,125 42 -13
30 USA 9.6 1,847 18 12
31 Belgium 9.6 2,156 10 21
32 Oman 9.3 481 75 -43
33 Poland 9.3 1,972 14 19
34 Slovenia 9.0 2,118 11 23
35 Honduras 9.0 656 63 -28
36 UK 8.7 1,875 15 21
37 Croatia 8.3 1,992 13 24
38 Uruguay 7.9 1,422 31 7
39 Italy 7.7 2,103 12 27
40 Romania 7.7 1,664 23 17
41 Iraq 7.7 405 85 -44
42 Luxembourg 7.2 1,288 34 8
43 Spain 7.2 1,722 20 23
44 France 7.1 1,687 21 23
45 Georgia 7.1 1,268 35 10
46 Namibia 6.9 383 86 -40
47 Suriname 6.7 664 62 -15
48 Lithuania 6.6 1,613 24 24
49 Guatemala 6.5 462 78 -29
50 Cabo Verde 6.5 485 72 -22
51 Portugal 6.4 1,676 22 29
52 Costa Rica 6.4 841 54 -2
53 Libya 6.3 454 79 -26
54 Sweden 6.3 1,430 30 24
55 Ukraine 6.1 1,188 38 17
56 Kuwait 6.1 419 84 -28
57 Ireland 5.8 991 46 11
58 Aruba 5.8 998 45 13
59 Botswana 5.8 373 87 -28
60 Latvia 5.6 1,315 32 28
61 French Guiana 5.6 434 81 -20
62 Maldives 5.6 358 88 -26
63 Switzerland 5.6 1,245 36 27
64 Bahamas 5.5 594 65 -1
65 Guyana 5.5 536 69 -4
66 Austria 5.2 1,178 39 27
67 Israel 5.1 731 58 9
68 Turkey 4.9 572 67 1
69 Albania 4.9 853 53 16
70 Azerbaijan 4.8 484 73 -3
71 Russia 4.7 866 52 19
72 Netherlands 4.5 1,031 44 28
73 Greece 4.5 1,195 37 36
74 French Polynesia 4.3 502 70 4
75 Germany 4.2 1,078 43 32
76 World 4.1 484 74 2
77 Estonia 4.1 955 49 28
78 Seychelles 4.1 465 77 1
79 Malta 4.1 946 50 29
80 Qatar 4.0 196 103 -23
81 Kyrgyzstan 3.9 285 94 -13
82 Serbia 3.9 799 56 26
83 UAE 3.7 172 106 -23
84 Curaçao 3.7 746 57 27
85 Nepal 3.6 281 95 -10
86 Antigua and Barbuda 3.5 425 83 3
87 Trinidad and Tobago 3.3 467 76 11
88 Dominican Republic 3.3 338 90 -2
89 Saudi Arabia 3.3 213 101 -12
90 Sao Tome and Principe 3.3 165 107 -17
91 Canada 3.3 680 60 31
92 Comoros 3.2 164 108 -16
93 Saint Lucia 3.2 433 82 11
94 El Salvador 3.2 352 89 5
95 India 3.0 265 96 -1
96 Jamaica 2.8 334 91 5
97 Philippines 2.6 205 102 -5
98 Guadeloupe 2.5 562 68 30
99 Morocco 2.5 246 98 1
100 Channel Islands 2.3 490 71 29
101 Zimbabwe 2.2 108 117 -16
102 Lesotho 2.2 150 111 -9
103 Djibouti 2.2 153 110 -7
104 Indonesia 2.1 191 104 0
105 Kazakhstan 2.1 219 100 5
106 Afghanistan 2.0 90 125 -19
107 Egypt 2.0 149 112 -5
108 Equatorial Guinea 2.0 82 127 -19
109 Mauritania 1.9 99 119 -10
110 Denmark 1.9 434 80 30
111 Zambia 1.9 73 130 -19
112 Cyprus 1.8 306 93 19
113 Gambia 1.7 72 131 -18
114 Belarus 1.7 315 92 22
115 Mongolia 1.6 109 116 -1
116 Réunion 1.5 235 99 17
117 Pakistan 1.5 96 123 -6
118 Syria 1.4 98 121 -3
119 Senegal 1.4 66 133 -14
120 Kenya 1.4 61 134 -14
121 Malawi 1.3 58 137 -16
122 Gabon 1.2 68 132 -10
123 Malaysia 1.2 119 114 9
124 Sudan 1.1 60 135 -11
125 Cameroon 1.1 48 138 -13
126 Somalia 1.1 47 139 -13
127 Martinique 1.0 261 97 30
128 Bangladesh 1.0 78 129 -1
129 Venezuela 0.9 98 122 7
130 Yemen 0.9 44 140 -10
131 Algeria 0.9 79 128 3
132 St. Vincent Grenadines 0.8 107 118 14
133 Barbados 0.8 163 109 24
134 Guinea-Bissau 0.8 34 144 -10
135 Sri Lanka 0.7 99 120 15
136 Norway 0.7 144 113 23
137 Finland 0.7 173 105 32
138 Myanmar 0.7 59 136 2
139 Ethiopia 0.7 35 142 -3
140 Madagascar 0.6 31 145 -5
141 Mali 0.6 25 152 -11
142 Angola 0.6 24 154 -12
143 Congo 0.6 28 147 -4
144 Mozambique 0.6 26 151 -7
145 Rwanda 0.6 27 149 -4
146 Cuba 0.5 94 124 22
147 Iceland 0.5 87 126 21
148 Ghana 0.5 24 153 -5
149 CAR 0.4 19 157 -8
150 Haiti 0.4 30 146 4
151 Japan 0.4 111 115 36
152 Liberia 0.3 17 160 -8
153 Nicaragua 0.3 28 148 5
154 Papua New Guinea 0.3 18 159 -5
155 Togo 0.3 14 161 -6
156 Cambodia 0.3 19 158 -2
157 Uzbekistan 0.3 20 155 2
158 Guinea 0.3 12 164 -6
159 Chad 0.3 10 166 -7
160 Ivory Coast 0.2 11 165 -5
161 Uganda 0.2 8 172 -11
162 Nigeria 0.2 10 169 -7
163 Timor-Leste 0.2 13 163 0
164 Sierra Leone 0.2 10 168 -4
165 S. Korea 0.2 38 141 24
166 South Sudan 0.2 10 167 -1
167 DRC 0.2 9 171 -4
168 Australia 0.2 35 143 25
169 Niger 0.2 7 176 -7
170 Burkina Faso 0.2 7 175 -5
171 Tajikistan 0.2 9 170 1
172 Benin 0.2 8 174 -2
173 Thailand 0.1 20 156 17
174 Hong Kong 0.1 27 150 24
175 Mauritius 0.1 14 162 13
176 Brunei 0.1 6 177 -1
177 Eritrea 0.1 4 180 -3
178 Grenada 0.1 8 173 5
179 Vanuatu 0.1 3 183 -4
180 Fiji 0.1 4 181 -1
181 Singapore 0.0 5 178 3
182 New Zealand 0.0 5 179 3
183 Western Sahara 0.0 1 184 -1
184 China 0.0 3 182 2
185 Burundi 0.0 0 186 -1
186 Bhutan 0.0 1 185 1
187 Tanzania 0.0 0 189 -2
188 Laos 0.0 0 188 0
189 Vietnam 0.0 0 187 2